I have no inside information about this, but I don’t think Gordon Brown will become leader of the Labour Party, or Prime Minister. My reasons are:
- the clear favourite almost never succeeds (think Gaitskell/Bevan, Foot/Healy)
- with David Cameron in charge of the Tories, the Labour Party will want someone of a younger generation
- Brown will be blamed, fairly or not, for slower economic growth and the impact of fiscal constraints in the coming years
- I suspect Blair will pick the moment of his departure to minimise Brown’s chances of succession
Who will it be instead? My guesses would be (in no particular order) David Miliband, Ruth Kelly or Douglas Alexander.