Sitting in the airport lounge in Washington DC today, I was a bit surprised to find a “bonus issue” of How To Spend It in today’s paper.

I expect that there are lots of investors whose main concerns today include “whether the perfect sound system exists”, “the demure allure of autumn’s flattering longer skirts” (the Cavalli skirt is a snip at £3000), and “whether corporate gifts can ever truly be objects of desire”.

I also hate this word because it so many things to so many different people.

I am also uncomfortable about the notion of sustainability, but for slightly different reasons.

There seems to be a consensus that development assistance is only politically defensible if we assert that it is temporary.  Our objective, we say, is to put ourselves out of work by creating conditions in which countries do not need our help.   This leads to a cult of sustainability which is problematic for at least 3 reasons.

First, it leads us to choose interventions that are (or appear to be) time-limited even when there are more effective alternatives available.  Some very effective development interventions can only be sustained in the poorest countries as long as donors are prepared to support them for many years to come - such as vaccination campaigns, increasing schooling or tariff reform.  As a result, aid agencies tend to prefer short-term interventions over more effective but longer term partnership.

Second, it leads us to design interventions badly.   For example, donors have pressed governments to introduce user charges (for health care, or schools) so that they can project an end to aid financing.  But user charges reduces access to those services for the very poor, so reducing the benefits of the intervention and excluding the group that most needs the help.   

Third, it pushes donors to over-claim the effects of what they can do.  Staff in development agencies feel the need to claim that each aid programme is “transformational” or at least “catalytic” and every project description describes how it will accelerate economic growth and development.  I’m doubtful, myself, that there is all that much we can do to make countries develop faster.  But there is a lot that we can do to help people to live better lives while that process is taking place.  But the cult of sustainability makes such interventions illegitimate. 

Nonetheless, I understand why developing countries and donors are keen to see an end to the aid relationship. At its worst, it can corrode accountability and create dependence that all of us want to see ended.

These thoughts may seem contradictory.  I reconcile them by believing that the richest people in the world have a duty to support the poorest people in the world - whether they are in the same country or not - as a matter of social justice rather than charity.  This is a principle that we accept within our own countries - few of us think that we should aim to exit altogether from national insurance, state pensions or unemployment benefits in our own countries.  The same principle should apply globally: there will always be people who are relatively rich and people who are relatively poor, and we should be aiming to evolve institutions which are effective at transferring income from the best off to the wost off around the world.  And we will be doing that for the foreseeable future.

when you make a donation to Planned Parenthood in her name, they’ll send her a card telling her that the donation has been made in her honor. Here’s the link to the Planned Parenthood website:

https://secure.ga0.org/02/pp10000_inhonor

You’ll need to fill in the address to let PP know where to send the “in Sarah Palin’s honor” card. I suggest you use the address for the McCain campaign headquarters, which is:

McCain for President
1235 S. Clark Street
1st Floor
Arlington , VA 22202

PS make sure you use that link above or choose the pulldown of Donate–Honorary or Memorial Donations, not the regular “Donate Online”

In some circumstances, simple monitoring and evaluation without randomization might be enough, even if it leaves us with less certainty about the outcomes. Perhaps it’s time to develop more formal cost-benefit guidelines for randomized evaluations?

Our problem is that we are investing too little in rigorous evaluations, not too much.  We’ve been giving aid for 50 years now with pitifully little evidence about what really works. 

Of course it is true in principle that we could invest too much in evaluation - but the point of diminishing returns is a long way above where we are now.  The sums of money involved are trivial by comparison with the huge amounts of aid we are spending on the basis of far too little information.

I’m reminded of Derek Curtis Bok’s famous remark:

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

Yesterday was New Year’s Day here in Ethiopia - it was the first day of 2001 on the Ethiopian Calendar. Grethe and I celebrated by going for a run in the hills overlooking the city.

First the religious right were asked to pray for rain during the Denver Democratic National Convention:

Stuart Shepard of Focus on the Family, one of America’s leading evangelical groups, was shown in a video filmed at Denver’s Invesco Field, where 75,000 are expected to cheer Mr Obama on Aug 28, asking Christians to pray for “torrential” rain.

“I’m talking ‘umbrella-ain’t-going-to-help-you rain,” the former pastor and television meteorologist said. He explained on the video: “I’m still pro life, and I’m still in favour of marriage as being between one man and one woman. And I would like the next president who will select justices for the next Supreme Court to agree.”

Did it rain on Mr Obama’s parade? Did it heck.

But what’s this? Hurricane Gustav has prompted a rethink over the Republican convention. John McCain said:

“But you know it just wouldn’t be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near-tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster. So we’re monitoring it from day to day and I’m saying a few prayers too.”

If the Big Guy is sending rain according to which side he’s on, then He seems to be a Democrat.

while Ms. Palin is perfectly entitled to believe that evolution is a myth, that women should be barred from choosing to have abortions, and that global warming has yet to be proven, these views all run counter to the views of mainstream America.

This is the entrance to a tiny 13th Century Rock Church in Tigray, called Abuna Yemata Guh. And yes, that’s a narrow ledge you have to walk along, with a 200 metre vertical drop to your left, at the end of a terrifying ascent up the side of a cliff to get there.

The dangerous climb is rewarded with an extraordinary church, carved into the rock, with glorious paintings.

More photos here or as a slideshow.

Last weekend, we stayed in Gheralta Lodge, about 2 hours drive from Mekele in Tigray, Ethiopia, as our base for seeing some of the countryside and visiting the local rock churches. (See also here and here.)

Gheralta is near Hawzien (or Hawzen), a small market town which is the site of an infamous massacre by the Derg of TPLF rebels.

The Lodge is beautifully designed to fit in with the local countryside and architecture, and to minimize the environmental impact of the accommodation.  They grow their own food and bake delicious bread.

More photos here or as a slideshow.

Here it is in Tripadvisor.

We went recently to the village of Amber, about 6 hours north of Addis Ababa, to spend some time listening to people telling us about their attitudes to children, marriage, divorce, sex, abortion and contraceptions. (This is part of G’s work; I went along to listen and learn.)

The most surprising thing to me was that, although this is a deeply religious society, there were no social, religious or other concerns about people using contraception and abortion to limit the size of their family. The concern that people have about the pressure on land of having too many children in the community was far more pressing. The only objections to contraception were (perceived and real) side effects and the practicalities (and cost) of getting it.

More photos here.

“We’re borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet. Every bit of that has to change.”

I know development assistance is not the most popular program, but as President, I will make the case to the American people that it can be our best investment in increasing the common security of the entire world. That was true with the Marshall Plan, and that must be true today. That’s why I’ll double our foreign assistance to $50 billion by 2012, and use it to support a stable future in failing states, and sustainable growth in Africa; to halve global poverty and to roll back disease. To send once more a message to those yearning faces beyond our shores that says, “You matter to us. Your future is our future. And our moment is now.”

This is very welcome, though personally I’d settle for keeping the number the same but using it better.

Contrary to what some people expect, statistical analysis shows that Republicans tend to be more generous with aid to Africa than Democratic administration. Maybe Obama would buck that trend.

I found a travel blog website and zoned in on Ghana and the stories of this year’s volunteer troups. The diaries and accounts read just like a book. A book I’ve read so many times. The positive attitude reigns – despite being pick pocketed in a trotro, being food poisoned at the dump of a hotel, having local groups only participate in the great programs if they are paid to join in.

Rather sadly, there is something in this jaundiced look at volunteers from rich countries working in poor countries.

The one thing that most poor countries have in abundance is cheap, unskilled labour; so it is not clear how cheap, unskilled volunteer labour from abroad is going to help.

The main benefit of volunteering programmes appears to be for the volunteer: they get a life-enriching experience. They might also return home with a lifelong interest in development issues and internationalism.

As the report says:

change remains incremental and tremendous success stories on the ground are not being taken to scale in the manner necessary to realise the shared goals of the international community

According to the FT:

DATA found that the increase in aid to Africa amounted to an average of $1bn a year from 2005-07, while countries were expected to give an additional $2.6bn in 2008. But this was far short of the extra $6.4bn needed this year to keep the G8 countries on track to meet their $50bn target.

The researchers found that women who drank four to five cups per day were 34% less likely to die of heart disease, while men who had more than five cups a day were 44% less likely to die.

How the Civil Service Code applies to online participation

The Civil Service Code applies to your participation online as a civil servant or when discussing government business. You should participate in the same way as you would with other media or public forums such as speaking at conferences.

Disclose your position as a representative of your department or agency unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as a potential threat to personal security. Never give out personal details like home address and phone numbers.

Always remember that participation online results in your comments being permanently available and open to being republished in other media. Stay within the legal framework and be aware that libel, defamation, copyright and data protection laws apply. This means that you should not disclose information, make commitments or engage in activities on behalf of Government unless you are authorised to do so. This authority may already be delegated or may be explicitly granted depending on your organisation.

Also be aware that this may attract media interest in you as an individual, so proceed with care whether you are participating in an official or a personal capacity. If you have any doubts, take advice from your line manager.

Good luck to civil servants as they try to implement this. I had rather a torrid time when the Mail on Sunday chose to attack me for my previous blog.

Simon Dickson has more.

We would like to tell you the story of $150m going up in smoke,” said the young villager. “We heard on the radio that there was going to be a reconstruction programme in our region to help us rebuild our houses after coming back from exile, and we were very pleased.”

This was the summer of 2002. The village was in a remote part of Bamiyan province, in Afghanistan’s central highlands, and several hours’ drive from the provincial capital—utterly cut off from the world. UN agencies and NGOs were rushing to provide “quick impact” projects to help Afghan citizens in the aftermath of war. $150m could have transformed the lives of the inhabitants of villages like this one.

But it was not to be, as the young man explained. “After many months, very little had happened. We may be illiterate, but we are not stupid.

So we went to find out what was going on. And this is what we discovered: the money was received by an agency in Geneva, who took 20 per cent and subcontracted the job to another agency in Washington DC, who also took 20 per cent. Again it was subcontracted and another 20 per cent was taken; and this happened again when the money arrived in Kabul. By this time there was very little money left; but enough for someone to buy wood in western Iran and have it shipped by a shipping cartel owned by a provincial governor at five times the cost of regular transportation. Eventually some wooden beams reached our villages. But the beams were too large and heavy for the mud walls that we can build. So all we could do was chop them up and use them for firewood.”

My current work is about how we can make aid more transparent, so that this kind of thing does not happen.

Addis has always benefited from having plenty of great coffee shops (coffee did, by some accounts, originate in Ethiopia).  Now many of them have free wireless internet too - like the Swiss Cafe, which has this splendid sculpture outside its door.

With the traffic and pollution, this part of Addis feels more like Los Angeles than Berkeley.  But inside the coffee shop - paying about 20p for an excellent cappucino and free wireless - you could almost be in the Bay Area.

It is a big change to move away from home for 3 years.  I am excited, as I love Ethiopia; but I am also a bit apprehensive about how much our lives will change.