The Guardian development blog is running a series of end of year reflections on development, including one by me. Many of the articles are upbeat about progress in developing countries, but pessimistic about the short term economic prospects for the industrialised world and for global cooperation to tackle shared global problems.
The series so far includes:
- Duncan Green from Oxfam, who contrasts progress in developing countries over the last year with the gloom of the ‘formerly rich’ countries of the G-8.
- Calestous Juma from Harvard, who identifies regional integration and better links with the diaspora as key drivers of Africa’s growth.
- Shanta Devarajan from the World Bank, who is cautiously optimistic, especially in the light of increased demand by Africans for their governments to be accountable.
- Linda Raftree from Plan, who also emphasizes progress towards more inclusive and open societies.
- Kevin Watkins from Brookings and UNESCO, calling for “a properly financed global fund for education like those that have delivered such striking results in the health sector“.
- Jonathan Glennie from ODI and the Guardian, who is pessimistic about the prospects for international cooperation in the face of rising protectionism and nationalism as a result of poor economic prospects in the US and Europe.
- and my contribution, reproduced below, which gives a positive account of progress in many countries in Africa over the past year, and emphasizes the importance for developing countries of better global decision-making.
Busan was an expression of new geopolitical realities, but despite high level representation, it has done little to shape the future of development cooperation. I think there were perhaps four important outcomes from Busan, in addition to which I noted five other topics of discussion which may prove important in future.
The southern port city of Busan in South Korea was a fitting host for a meeting on aid effectiveness. Busan was the port through which humanitarian aid arrived sixty years ago, to help the people of a country ravaged by war. Korea’s reconstruction and development was financed in part by international aid. Beginning in 1952, American aid alone averaged about $3 billion a year (in today’s prices) and USAID had up to five hundred staff in Korea. Busan is also at one end of the Gyeongbu Expressway, the cornerstone of Korea’s first five year plan and regarded by many Koreans as one of the most important early ingredients the country’s successful industrialization. When the road linking the country’s main population centres with the port was planned 40 years ago, Korean national income was just $142 a person a year. The World Bank and other donors refused to finance the construction, regarding it as an excessively grandiose project for a country so poor. So President Park Chung-hee used a quarter of the nation’s budget, topped up with some reparations from Japan, to pay for it instead. National income quadrupled in the seven years following the construction of the road.
Today Busan is a bustling, prosperous city, home of the fifth largest port in the world; and the Gyeongbu Expressway is scheduled to become part of the Asian Highway, a planned network of routes connecting Korea with Japan, China, Southeast Asia, India, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.
Korea exemplifies much of what we know about development: the fundamental importance of economic growth and industrialisation; the need for investment in economic infrastructure; the importance of good and effective leaders; the primary role played by the country’s own resources; the additional contribution that aid can make both to improving people’s lives and to investing in development; and the capacity of aid agencies to be wrong, especially in the poverty of their aspirations for developing countries.
Busan delegates wait for Starbucks to open at the conference centre in Busan
So Busan was a suitable place for about 3000 government officials, policy wonks, NGOs and a smattering of private sector representatives to discuss how the aid system could be made more effective. This was the fourth in a series of meetings, which have toured Rome (2003), Paris (2005) and Accra (2008).
I’ve been involved in all this since 2002, motivated by my involvement in a series of studies in Ethiopia, Rwanda and Senegal. Though we represented donor agencies ourselves, our report was outspoken in its criticisms of donor behaviour. We found that “the aspiration of a government-led process for implementing the PRS [poverty reduction strategy], with a nationally led process for monitoring, review and renewal of objectives, has yet to be realised. Instead, donors have continued to focus on their own timetables, their missions, their conditions, and have demanded information to suit their requirements.” Our reports on the experience of developing countries were part of the evidence which led to the Rome Declaration on Harmonisation the following year. Yet despite the best efforts of many good people, the problems we identified ten years ago are, if anything, even worse today.
Since 2003 these summits have grown in size and attracted increasingly senior representation. Among the roughly three thousand people in Busan were Ban Ki-moon, Hillary Clinton, Tony Blair, a brace of Presidents, a Prime Minister, and hundreds of ministers and senior officials. If this group did not have the authority to make progress on improving aid, it was difficult to know who would. Negotiations on the communique began back in July and were concluded with the publication on the last day of the meeting of the “Busan Partnership for Effective Development“.
Now that the dust has settled, and many words have been written, it seems to me that there were four significant outcomes from Busan.
The Bexco Conference Centre in Busan
First, the beginning of a new global partnership. This is the result of Busan which the OECD and traditional donors have been most keen to emphasize. It was not clear right up to the last day whether China, and perhaps other new donors, would be willing to agree to the declaration; and much of the last day was spent refining and agreeing to this key disclaimer which had to be included to persuade China to sign: “The principles, commitments and actions agreed in the outcome document in Busan shall be the reference for South-South partners on a voluntary basis.” With this disclaimer the new donors are not bound to any particular commitments to improve their aid, but it must be a step forward everyone accepts the need of these new donors to be part of the conversation. Note that there was no need to weaken the specific commitments of traditional donors as a price of China’s agreement, since China was never likely to sign up to these commitments anyway. For example, the October draft would have committed all the donors who had signed the Accra Agenda for Action to “untie all aid by 2015″ – this was taken out of the Busan agreement in the final days at the request not of China, who would not have been bound by it, but of the United States.
Second, the new deal for fragile states. A group of 19 fragile and conflict-affected countries, known as the g7+, has been working with donors on how to improve peacebuilding and statebuilding efforts in these situations, beyond the aid effectiveness agenda. The main idea has been to focus on five themes: legitimate politics, justice, security, economic foundations, and revenues and services. The resulting “New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States” was endorsed at Busan. For more information see this article by ODI’s Alasdair McKechnie, and this blog entry by Fernanda Faria at ECDPM.
Third, significant progress on transparency. Since Accra, transparency has shifted from the periphery to the centre of the discourse on aid effectiveness. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earned a round of spontaneous applause for her announcement that the United States would be signing the International Aid Transparency Initiative, taking the membership of IATI up to 75 percent of global aid. Donors committed to draw up plans within a year, explaining how by 2015 they will publish electronically full details of all current and planned future aid projects in a common, open standard. Stephanie Majerowicz and I have written elsewhere about the contribution that the Open Government Partnership may have made to this progress. It also owes a great deal to leadership by the UK and Sweden, and the World Bank and EU, as well as civil society organisations Publish What You Fund, Development Gateway and aidinfo.
Fourth, significant changes in the international governance of the aid system. This may be one of the most important outcomes of Busan, yet it has so far attracted little comment. The Busan agreement abolishes the Working Party on Aid Effectiveness, which is technically a sub-committee of the OECD DAC but in practice has become a sprawling network of committees and meetings which had come to represent a broader group of stakeholders than the donor club in which it had been incubated. In its place will be a new “Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation”, to be supported by the OECD and UNDP. Though it may seem impolite to point this out, this change relegates the DAC back to the role of a caucus of traditional official donors, representing a dwindling proportion of aid, in defiance of its aspirations to lead reforms of the global governance of development cooperation. Even more significantly, Busan turns its back on the requirement of unanimity which has underpinned agreements on the aid system for the last 50 years. The DAC makes decisions by consensus, giving all its members a veto so that it moves only at the speed of the slowest ship in the convoy. But that is not how Busan envisages progress in future. The implementation of Busan will take place through a series of ‘building blocks‘ which are described as “voluntary, practical and actionable game-changers in the global dialogue on aid and development effectiveness.” This model was apparently conceived in in the light of the experience of work on transparency – the issue on which most progress has been made since Accra – which was taken forward by a coalition of the willing in the form of the International Aid Transparency Initiative. Stepping outside the DAC structures enabled a group of donors, foundations and civil society to work together without the constraint of an implicit veto of reluctant partners. Busan marks a shift in the global governance of development cooperation from consensus in the DAC to the ‘variable geometry’ of building blocks. The declaration highlights the ”opportunities presented by diverse approaches to development cooperation”. There are new commitments for all donors on transparency, and the declaration calls for “a selective and relevant set of indicators and targets through which we will monitor progress”. (It is hard to see how these targets will be agreed in the coming months given that no consensus could be reached in the run-up to Busan.) But beyond exposing their behaviour to public scrutiny, there is little else to which donors have specifically committed. This evolution of the architecture for the global governance of development cooperation towards progress by more flexible coalitions of the willing has obvious parallels with the direction in which the global governance of climate change is also moving.
In addition to these four outcomes on which progress was made, I noted five other themes being discussed in Busan which were not translated into significant progress, but which may be issues to watch for the future. These were:
- everyone wants a shift from aid effectiveness to development effectiveness - the importance of this change in perspective was emphasized by many people, especially the delegations from Africa. It is intended to mean focusing more on non-aid policies, and talking more about development outcomes. Everybody said they were in favour of such a shift, but this does not seem to have had much effect on the Busan agreement.
- there is greater recognition of the role civil society. The Accra meeting in 2008 was notable for the involvement of civil society in the meeting. Busan went further by including a civil society representative in the drafting committee, which led to specific recognition (in para 22) of the role that civil society plays in the development process, especially in enabling people to claim their rights and in service delivery.
- everyone is talking about ‘the results agenda’. I actually think there are at least three results agendas, not wholly consistent with each other. My CGD colleagues hosted a side event on results, which in my (not unbiased) view was one of the better discussions in Busan. But overall there was not much progress on results from Busan, other than calling for developing countries to put in place specific results frameworks at country level. I anticipate that one of the most important ‘building blocks’ after Busan will be on how the development system can do a better job of identifying relevant results, and how to avoid the risk that a focus on results leads to misallocation of money, for example away from longer term and institutional changes towards short-term and easy to measure results.
- the notion of mutual accountability is evolving. As Nancy Birdsall pointed out on the CGD blog, there seems to be less focus on ‘mutual accountability’ between donors and developing countries, and more attention to accountability of donors to their taxpayers and of aid-recipient governments to their own citizens in their use of aid.
- there is more talk about the private sector. There were lots of meetings about the private sector and its role in development, but I got the impression that it was mainly discussions between governments, development finance institutions, and some government affairs and corporate social responsibility representatives of firms from industrialised countries. I saw no sign of any businesses from developing countries being part of the discussion. I wonder what anyone really involved in business would have made of Busan.
I’m glad to see more people taking development effectiveness seriously, and impressed that the UN General Secretary and US Secretary of State felt it worth their while to attend. I also agree that it is important to build broader coalitions, and to think strategically about development and not just aid. But I also regret that, as a consequence, these meetings are gradually losing the focus on more technical issues about how aid is delivered. In 2003, the signatories to the Rome Declaration committed themselves to amend their “individual institutions’ and countries’ policies, procedures and practices to facilitate harmonisation”. Yet in 2011 in Busan, the President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, gave a masterclass in aid effectiveness, in which he observed
Developing countries spend more time and energy agreeing on procedures and accounting to donors and an ever-increasing number of related non-state actors than in actual development work, often responding to endless questioning that no answers can fully satisfy.
As Busan has shifted the discussion away from the nuts and bolts of how aid is delivered, and pushed much of the specific discussion of aid effectiveness to country level, it is not clear to me that there is any place left to address the concerns about donor agency policies which President Kagame so eloquently expressed.
In years to come, I expect that we will look back on the Busan agreement as a reflection of changing realities, including the growing range of different kinds of donors and shifting geopolitical power. I think it less likely that we will look back on Busan as having done much to shape those realities.
Further reading:
Aid Alert: China Officially Joins the Donor Club By Nancy Birdsall (President of CGD), December 5, 2011
Busan HLF4: The will and the way By Brian Atwood (Chair of DAC), December 8, 2011
Busan has been an expression of shifting geopolitical realities By Jonathan Glennie (ODI / Guardian), December 2, 2011
A View from Busan By Andris Piebalgs (EU Development Commissioner), December 5, 2011
Reflections on Busan By Judith Randel (Development Initiatives), December 9, 2011
Beyond Aid to Open Development By Alan Hudson (ONE), December 6, 2011
Moving towards open development By Sanjay Pradhan (World Bank), December 1, 2011
Busan: Yes we could By Patrick Love (OECD), November 30, 2011
An unnoticed but crucial development summit By Manuel Manrique (FRIDE), December 4, 2011
Busan: A Bang or a Whimper? By Alan Hudson (ONE), December 2, 2011
Busan: Why Aid Effectiveness Matters By Jessica Espey (Save the Children), December 1, 2011
Busan Forum: Aid promises come tumbling down By Sanda Van Damm and Jennifer Martin (Oxfam), November 29, 2011
Verdict still out on whether Busan is a good deal for poor countries By Oxfam, December 1, 2011
Two-speed aid effectiveness By Stefan Leiderer & Stephan Klingebiel, December 7, 2011
‘Value for money’ or ‘Results Obsession Disorder’? By Marcus Leroy (ex Belgian Development Cooperation), December 7, 2011
A killing embrace of diversity By Reinier van Hoffen, December 6, 2011
Towards more effective aid By Axel von Trotsenburg (World Bank), December 1, 2011
Written Ministerial Statement: Outcome of the Busan High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness By Andrew Mitchell (UK Secretary of State), December 7, 2011
Three-way-learning. The South-South Agenda in Busan, By Han Fretters (World Bank), December 1, 2011
Aid architecture debate surfaces new ideas, appetite for dialogue By Axel van Trotsenburg (World Bank), December 2, 2011
This joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz first appeared on the Views from the Center blog at the Center for Global Development
“The defining division these days is increasingly: open or closed? Are we open to the changing world? Or do we see its menace, but not its possibilities?”
—Tony Blair, A Global Alliance for Global Values, September 2006
It is easy to be cynical about international summits and their carefully drafted communiqués. But they sometimes matter more than people expect. (If they didn’t, why would government officials put so much time and effort into negotiating the text?) Even if the text is often a bland compromise, these meetings can help to move an issue forward, by locking in a new consensus which forms the platform for further progress.
We saw how this works at this week’s High Level Forum on development effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. In a speech notable for a thinly veiled warning about aid from China, Secretary Clinton made the welcome announcement that the US would join the International Aid Transparency Initiative, which entails the publication of the details of all US aid projects. This decision has given a major impetus to the international movement for aid transparency, which has been one of the important outcomes of the Busan meeting. According to US administration insiders, this decision was in part a consequence of an earlier international initiative, which has not had as much attention as it deserves: the Open Government Partnership (OGP).
The OGP is an effort to create a club of nations committed to good governance and transparency. It was launched a few months ago in New York, at a side-event of the UN meetings, by 26 heads of state, the culmination of months of work by the White House and eight partner governments.
David Eaves (an open government enthusiast from Canada) sees the Open Government Partnership as more than just another meeting. The OGP, he says:
…is much more than a simple pact designed to make heads of state look good. I believe it has real geopolitical aims and may be the first overt, ideological salvo in the what I believe will be the geopolitical axis of Open versus Closed. This is about finding ways to compete for the hearts and minds of the world in a way that China, Russia, Iran and others simpley cannot.
The Economist blog is less convinced: in their view “this is really nothing new or major” especially because the partnership includes “such beacons of openness as Russia and Pakistan.”
We’ve warmed to the Open Government Partnership after some initial skepticism. The architects never had the grandiose ambitions that David Eaves suggests: rather they wanted to do something which might encourage small, tangible improvements in the way governments promote transparency and good governance. The idea is to provide a network of support to reformers across the world pushing for open government, to enable them to share ideas and lessons, and to strengthen their hand by demonstrating to sceptics that they are part of a broader international movement. It brings government’s domestic achievements to the international spotlight to encourage reforms and reformers. By that modest yardstick, the initiative is a step in the right direction.
Why were we skeptical at first? Partly for the reasons set out by the Economist: the standards for joining the OGP (and the implicit endorsement that it confers) are not very exacting. What kind of transparency club has Russia and Azerbaijan as members? More importantly, we felt that an international initiative would have most value if it focused on transparency of cross border flows such as payments by companies for minerals, cross-border transactions between multinational companies and their subsidiaries, aid transparency, and cooperation between tax authorities. It is in tackling transnational problems that an international coalition makes most sense. But there was little political appetite for starting with these difficult international problems, and the OGP has focused mainly on encouraging its members to implement policies which promote transparency domestically.
But although the OGP has not focused on improving the transparency of international flows, there are already signs of how it can work to put pressure on its members to be more open. It has apparently contributed to the announcement this week that the US would join the International Aid Transparency Initiative, bringing the US into line with other OGP members. Furthermore there is now a debate bubbling up in the UK about the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative which requires governments publicly to disclose their revenues from oil, gas, and mining assets, and for companies to disclose the payments they make. President Obama announced at the launch of the OGP that the US would itself become a member of the EITI. As a result, the UK is now under pressure to follow suit. Although the UK was a supporter of EITI from its inception, it has never joined itself (partly because of opposition from the Business Department): a position which will be more difficult to sustain if and when the US fulfills President Obama’s commitment to join. That is exactly the kind of international peer pressure which OGP is designed to generate.
So the OGP is, to misquote Churchill, a modest initiative with much to be modest about. It was not conceived as the opening salvo of a new battle, but as a small step to encourage and support those countries round the world who want to move towards greater openness and transparency. There are some welcome signs that it is already making a difference. It may eventually lose momentum, especially as the politicians who put it together move on, and it may become too diluted by the undemanding criteria for membership. We hope not.
This blog post first appeared on the aidinfo site.
More than two thousand delegates have gathered today in Busan, South Korea, for the fourth installment of a succession of meetings aimed at making aid more effective.
There has been significant progress since the meeting in Accra in 2008 towards improving transparency of aid. This is important because it’s a pre-requisite for achieving all the aid effectiveness principles. Jamie Drummond from the ONE campaign explains this very well in the Huffington Post.
The challenge is to provide information to people at country level. Our existing aid information systems are mainly designed to enable donors to share information with each other, not to meet the needs of people in developing countries.
But the information needs at country level are hugely diverse, both between and within developing countries. Within governments, the information needs of the finance ministry are different from the needs of line ministries. The needs of parliamentarians, civil society, media and citizens are all different again. It is impractical for donors to try to meet the needs of every niche interest with their own subset of the data in a particular format.
뜻이 있는 곳에 길이 있다 (where there’s a will there’s a way)
Here’s the technical bit: the way to serve all these different needs for information without massive duplication and bureaucracy is to separate the data from the interface. An open, standardised, detailed, shared data layer can support a whole range of different applications, tailored to specific users.
That is why it is so exciting that the open data revolution is coming to aid. In 2008, in a side-meeting in Accra, a coalition of willing donors, developing countries, foundations and NGOs made a declaration which launched the International Aid Transparency Initiative. A lot of that data is now being published – countries accounting for nearly half of global aid are now publishing through IATI, and that proportion will grow in the coming months.
If you are in Busan this week, and you want to know how IATI works, the IATI secretariat will be doing a briefing at 5pm on Wednesday, in room KW202 (I’m making a guest appearance to show off some beta software, so do come along and laugh at me when it doesn’t work).
천릿길은 한 걸음부터 (A 1000-li journey starts with one step)
Transparency by itself does not lead to more accountability, less waste, or better coordination. That happens when people are able to use the information. The extent to which they are able to do so depends on their context, including the political and administrative climate. Open data won’t automatically make organisations responsive, but will greatly reduce the difficulty and cost for citizens of taking the data and turning it into something meaningful and useful.
With an open aid data platform now in place, huge opportunities are being opened. We can use the standard to introduce traceability of aid as it passes from organisation to organisation. We can improve the quality and detail of the data that is collected and publish it through these systems.
Reporting of aid data should be not just by donors but by NGOs, private sector implementing agencies and foundations. The mechanisms for sharing information can be extended beyond aid to other kinds of resources for poverty reduction. We can add detailed geo-coding, to enable aid projects and programmes to be mapped, and better coordinated. We can begin to compare across aid programmes and across countries. We can mix aid information with other data from other sources.
The twenty four donors who have signed IATI should be congratulated for their efforts to make data available. The payoff from that effort will come when we all start to use the data to understand aid better: to see what is working and what is not, and to hold the aid system to account, so leading to improvements in the effectiveness of aid. IATI removes the most significant barriers to entry for a wide range of diverse applications.
The next step is to nurture and encourage an ecosystem of civil society groups, parliamentarians, researchers, think tanks, academics, governments, private sector organisation, media and hackers, all accessing and using the information in different ways, and using this as a platform to push for improvements in how resources for poverty reduction are used. The new Open Aid Partnership is an example of an initiative of this kind: the door is now open for many more.
We can now look forward to the day when we take for granted the ubiquitous availability of aid data. We will soon forget that it was ever a struggle to find out about aid projects in a developing country, or to follow the money through NGOs and implementing partners. Having laid these important foundations, we will be able to move on to much more important and exciting innovations which support people in developing countries to use and repurpose this information and use it to change their world.
Will the largest aid donors hide behind China to excuse their inability to make substantial improvements in foreign aid? How can Busan balance the desire to be more universal with the pressing need for real changes in the way aid is given?
Much of the development policy world converges on Busan this week for the High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness. This is the fourth in the series after Rome (2003), Paris (2005) and Accra (2008). The Guardian has a good ‘explainer’ about the issues being discussed.
Behind the scenes here in Busan, the trade-off is between getting everybody on board, including new providers of south-south cooperation such as China, India and Brazil, and pushing the boundaries towards more effective aid from existing donors.
Liberian children hold Chinese flags before the arrival of China's President Hu Jintao
Busan offers the possibility of a globally inclusive agreement, especially bringing in the important providers of south-south cooperation such as China and India, and non-traditional donors such as foundations and the private sector. But a broad consensus may only be possible if the text is sufficiently watered down. New donors are unlikely to sign up to an agreement which seeks faster improvements in development assistance by setting more explicit and demanding targets than were agreed in Paris and Accra. Most would not be willing to sign up even to long-established effectiveness principles such as untying aid, more predictability, and greater transparency and accountability. Nor are they likely to agree to be bound by any kind of monitoring or enforcement regime.
Many of the organisations involved in Busan have a strong institutional interest in emphasizing the benefits of a ‘big tent’ agreement:
- Individual DAC donors will be glad to talk up the importance of drawing new players into the process. They can trumpet this as a big step forward, especially to domestic audiences which feel threatened by China’s growing global role. They can pretend to be disappointed that it has required them to accept a rather bland communique which steps back from their existing commitments, while being privately relieved to have been let them off the hook for the improvements in aid to which they have agreed in the past and which they have shown themselves unwilling to make.
- A dialogue with new donors could give a new raison d’être to the DAC, an OECD body which is otherwise staring into the abyss of obsolescence. The DAC is a club of traditional government donors which constitute a dwindling proportion of global aid; nobody any more believes that an exclusive group of donors should set the rules of the aid system; and anyway DAC members themselves have failed to implement the principles they have agreed. It is not lost on the 150 staff of the DAC that hosting a dialogue between traditional and emerging donors could give the DAC a new lease of life.
- The Korean hosts will be looking ahead to how the Busan conference will be remembered. Building the bridge to new Asian donors would be a natural legacy. Korea has itself only recently joined the DAC and they would be very glad to shift the discussion away from compliance with a (largely European inspired) aid effectiveness agenda towards the value of a broader dialogue with emerging donors and the private sector.
- China would be happy to have a declaration which validates their approach to development cooperation, but they do not regard this as important. They are apparently sending a small, low-key, delegation of about six people to Busan, and it is rumoured that they will either not sign the outcome document at all, or that they will sign as a developing country but not as a donor. China believes that different rules should apply to ‘south south cooperation’, so in principle they do not regard any of this discussion as applicable to the aid they give. In any case, China gives very little actual aid (as defined by the DAC) – probably less in total than Switzerland. The vast majority of China’s involvement in developing countries takes the form of quasi-commercial trade credits which are not included within the scope of these aid effectiveness discussions.
Given these strong institutional interests which favour getting China on board, it is no surprise that the latest (5th) draft of the Busan Outcome Document is a largely anodyne document with few additional commitments by donors. The UK Aid Network has a concise update about this here. Unless this changes in the next few days, Busan will be remembered as the conference at which traditional donors retreated from the explicit, time-bound commitments and monitoring arrangements which they agreed in Paris in 2005.
There is one group of stakeholders with something to lose from this: the people of developing countries who are the intended beneficiaries of aid, whose voice is not strongly heard in the discussions. They are the people who lose out when aid is wasted because it is unpredictable, untransparent and unaccountable. It is their services, not the aid bureaucracies, which suffer when there is duplication and burgeoning bureaucracy. It is their businesses which are damaged by tied aid. It is their governments which become answerable not to their citizens but to an unaccountable group of donors. A decision to accept a weaker, more universal agreement in Busan will satisfy the donors, but the poorest, most vulnerable people in the world will pay the price.
As Gideon Rabinowitz of the UK Aid Network pointed out last week, the Accra communique was similarly disappointing at a similar stage before the 2008 conference. That time round, a group of European development ministers arrived in Accra and insisted on significant improvements, causing outrage among other participants, not least the bureaucrats who had sat through endless drafting meetings over the preceding months only to find their work had been nugatory. But this year, those donors seem to be much less inclined to use any of their economic or political capital pushing for improvements in aid. So it will suit them to emphasize the importance of a new agreement which includes China, and hide behind this as an excuse for their own inability to summon the political will to make aid more effective.
There is, however, another approach which could both and secure broad international agreement and still lead to substantive improvements in aid effectiveness. We should learn from what has happened since the Accra High Level Forum in 2008, in particular on transparency which is the issue on which there has been most progress. Donors accounting for half of global aid are now publishing their aid data through the new International Aid Transparency Initiative, IATI. But this has not been achieved by the official DAC processes which are limited to moving at the speed of the slowest ship in the convoy. Instead, a coalition of willing donors has worked alongside the official process to agree and implement an international aid transparency standard.
There is a lesson here as we consider how to move forward from Busan. A possible approach is to accept an outcome document setting out principles which represent the ‘highest common factor’ among all the participants, which is buttressed by (and which could endorse and launch) various coalitions which are willing to move forward more quickly on particular issues (e.g. predictability, using country systems, and so on). These coalitions can then be pathfinders, leading by example and exerting peer pressure on other donors. Taxpayers in donor countries can put pressure on their governments to join these coalitions, so that their aid also benefits from the improvements which the coalitions are bringing about (in the way, for example, that the Canadian NGO Engineers Without Borders has put pressure on the Canadian government to join IATI.) There is more hope of achieving real progress through a series of path-finding coalitions than by investing all our energy in a universal agreement which is acceptable to everyone and satisfies nobody.
In two weeks there will be a huge international meeting on aid effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. Ban Ki-moon and Hillary Clinton will be among the two thousand delegates who gather together to discuss improvements in how aid is delivered. Though David Cameron and Barack Obama said (in a joint statement) that they would ensure that Busan “transforms the way bilateral aid is delivered around the world”, it looks increasingly as if the meeting will, as Simon Maxwell notes on his blog, produce “a bark but no bite.” Though it is full of worthy intent, there is little in the latest (fourth) draft of the Busan Outcome Document which suggests that it will result in more changes in donor behaviour than did the communiques from previous summits in Rome (2003), Paris (2005) and Accra (2008).
Two key pieces of background evidence have just been published which provide the backdrop to the discussions in Busan. First, the Broookings Institution and my colleagues at the Center for Global Development have published an updated Quality of Official Development Assistance index (QuODA), which scores donors on the effectiveness of their aid. Second, Publish What You Fund has published an Aid Transparency Index ranking donors according to how much information they make available about the aid they give.
CGD and Brookings Quality of Aid Index (QuODA)
QuODA is an assessment of the quality of aid provided by 23 donor countries and more than 100 aid agencies. It uses 31 indicators grouped in four dimensions that reflect the international consensus of what constitutes high-quality aid:
- Maximizing Efficiency
- Fostering Institutions
- Reducing Burden
- Transparency and Learning
QuODA itself does not provide an overall ranking of donors. The reason is that your view about the overall effectiveness of a donor will depend on how much weight you place on each indicator. But for what it is worth, here is how the ranking of donors looks if you give equal weight to each of the four QuODA dimensions:
Donors may quibble about which of the indicators are important, though all the indicators reflect solid academic research and experience about what makes aid effective, embedded in the international consensus about aid effectiveness to which they have signed up. For anyone wanting to focus on particular indicator and dimensions of effectiveness, the data are published online in an interactive web tool.
My two observations about this are:
- almost every donor has something to be proud of (nearly every donor is in the top half in at least one dimension) but all donors have considerable room for improvement;
- the multilateral agencies do better, on the whole, than the bilateral agencies; this may be because they are less susceptible to pressures from national donor politics; the World Bank, in particular, scores extremely well across the board
The Publish What You Fund Pilot Aid Transparency Index
The PWYF Aid Transparency Index, published today, dives deeper into whether donors publish adequate information about the aid they give. They analyze 58 organisations on 37 dimensions of transparency, mainly relating to whether information is available about particular projects and activities.
The World Bank tops the transparency index too. Indeed, there appears to be a strong correlation between aid transparency and aid effectiveness more generally. The chart below plots the PWYF transparency scores against the average of the three dimensions of QuODA which do not relate to transparency.
This correlation between aid effectiveness and transparency could come about for three reasons:
a. common causes: well-governed and well-managed aid agencies are likely to be both more effective and more transparent;
b. effectiveness causes transparency: aid agencies that are ineffective and know it are likely to want to be secretive; agencies that are effective are likely to want to tell the world more about what they do;
c. transparency causes effectiveness: agencies that are open and transparent are less likely to make decisions to use aid ineffectively because they will be held to account by politicians and the public.
Conclusions
The good news from both the QuODA index of aid quality and the PWYF Aid Transparency index is that it is possible for donors to live up to the goals they have set themselves to make aid more effective and more transparent. Most donors do well on some indicators, and yet are a long way behind the best on others. The bad news is that there is a long way to go before donors overall live up to the pledges they have given.
Time will tell whether yet another conference, and yet another communique, will make any more difference to donor behaviour than have the last three. However, there does now seem to be welcome momentum towards putting more information about aid into the public domain, and we may hope that this will, over time, provide both the information and political pressure needed to make aid more effective. If Busan succeeds in giving a big push to aid transparency, that may be the biggest contribution it can make towards the ambitious goal of ‘transforming’ aid.
This post first appeared on the CGD Rethinking US Foreign Assistance blog.
Information, not coordination, is the key to aid effectiveness. Some donors such as USAID are becoming interested in a more decentralized ‘Google Maps’ approach to aid coordination, to facilitate well-informed decisions by people on the ground. For this to work, donors need to do two things: publish more detailed project level information, and do so in an open, reusable, internationally consistent data format. Transparency aimed at a domestic audience is not sufficient.
We now know that the development system has met just one of the 13 targets it set in 2005 for making aid more effective. That is not surprising: the problems diagnosed in the Paris Declaration are real and important, but the solutions that have been pursued in its name have not been practical. There are better ways to achieve the aid effectiveness which the Paris Declaration envisages.
Here is an example of the problem, from Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami:
“Last February in Riga [close to Calang in Indonesia], we had a case of measles. The epidemiologists from Banda Aceh gathered, fearing that the measles would spread among displaced people, but the girl was cured in two days. Eventually we discovered that this child had been vaccinated three times by different organizations, each without a vaccination card or any type of control. The symptoms were the result of these measles vaccines”.
Informal translation of an article in El Pais (April 13, 2005)
This is a graphic example of a widespread problem in development and humanitarian aid: a coordination failure leading to a substantial waste of money.
Following Paris, a conventional wisdom has grown up on how this kind of problem should be tackled. The regional health department should call a big meeting of all the donors and NGOs who might be interesting in running an immunization programme. They should share information with each other about their plans: which vaccines they intended to administer, and where. Under the leadership of the ministry, the donors should agree a division of labour to eliminate overlaps and ensure that aid is used efficiently.
Similar committees would have met to plan and coordinate every other kind of intervention to avoid overlap and make the best use of limited resources.
You don’t have to have a degree in Political Science to be able to see why this committee approach does not work. A country director for a large government aid agency recently told me that he spent more than half his time in donor coordination meetings. Most of each meeting is taken up by donors listing what they are doing. (Not surprisingly, he has now quit.)
So what is the alternative?
Once an aid agency has been licensed by the health ministry to provide vaccinations, it could simply publish online, in an accessible format, details of its plans and activities. Another organization planning its own programme could then easily check how they can best fit with what other agencies are doing. With open information sharing, no child would be vaccinated against the same disease twice; and under-reached populations could be easily identified and served.
This is an example of an important general point about improving aid effectiveness. Aid staff on the ground should not be stuck in endless coordination meetings: they should have the information they need to make good decisions about how to have the biggest impact, within a regulatory framework established by government, without being constrained by inappropriate rules and incentives imposed on them from far away.
A Google Maps approach to development?
There is growing interest in a ‘Google Maps’ approach to development coordination. We have seen welcome moves towards mapping of aid projects, for example by the World Bank, USAID, and Canadian CIDA. But as the example of vaccination in Banda Aceh illustrates, the key to making this information useful is that sufficiently detailed data from many different organisations is available in one place.
Some of the momentum towards greater aid transparency is driven by the need for increased accountability to taxpayers in donor countries. This is a laudable goal, but if data publication is targeted on this purpose alone it misses even bigger potential benefits from transparency. The US Government is making gradual progress on its Foreign Assistance Dashboard and a geographical coding system: but on current plans the data will not contain enough substantive detail. It will record information which is good enough to get a broad sense of where aid is being spent (‘top level administrative region’) but will not record specific locations (‘street corner’). This approach may be enough to meet the needs of a US accountability agenda, but it will miss the opportunity to use robust project level data and geo-coding to track and coordinate aid, to close down the space for corruption and waste, and to link feedback from project beneficiaries to specific aid funders.
It is also important that aid information is published in a reusable open data format, which has been agreed by a large group of donors in the IATI standard. Several donors – including the World Bank, the European Union, DFID, Australia and the Netherlands – are now publishing their data this way. Other donors have plans to do so. While it is welcome that Canada is publishing more detail about its aid projects, as the website makes clear the target audience for this information is “all Canadians”. The information published by CIDA is of almost no use to people in developing countries because it is not published in a form which is compatible with data from other all the other donors. Open data – in the sense of being genuinely accessible and comparable – enables civil society, parliamentarians and citizens of developing countries to be part of the coordination and accountability from which they are presently excluded.
In contrast to Canada, the United States has said it will ‘cross-walk’ its aid data to the IATI standard, which is extremely welcome. But so far they have not done so. While the implementation of a Foreign Assistance Dashboard is an important step towards domestic US accountability, all this data will only be of use internationally to make aid more effective and accountable when it is also published according to the international data standard.
Of course, USAID and State Department have limited resources and should be spending their money as much as possible on aid rather than administration. But as the World Bank has found out with its Mapping for Results project, it is not tremendously complicated or expensive to geo-code aid projects – and it will be even easier if that is done at the outset by front line staff who have detailed knowledge of the projects, rather than retrofitted afterwards in Washington. Nor has it proved difficult or expensive to organize data into the IATI format: I am told it took UNOPS just four weeks to implement IATI, from start to finish. There are many other donors, and organisations such as the Development Gateway, AidData and aidinfo, who have experience in geo-coding projects and publishing information in IATI format, who would be glad to help to design procedures, set up systems, and even to share their computer code. Furthermore, the administrative savings from reducing duplication by publishing open data are estimated rapidly to outpace these modest implementation costs. This is not primarily a question of money, but of leadership, recognition of the value of transparency which serves international as well as domestic audiences, and a willingness to reach out to work with others.
We can – and must – make aid more effective. This means making sure that decisions on the ground are likely to yield the biggest possible impact, and for that we need not more coordination meetings but better information, greater decentralization, simplified systems, fewer perverse incentives and more accountability.
If you have comments please put them on the CGD website.
This joint post with David Roodman first appeared on the Guardian Poverty Matters blog.
Does Britain’s remarkable political consensus supporting foreign aid obscure a more ambiguous overall footprint in the developing world?Though by no means unanimous, Britain’s cross-party agreement to protect the aid programme from budget cuts is admirable. It reflects an understanding that it is ultimately in the national interest to support development, as well as being the right thing to do.
But there is more to helping poor nations to develop than giving aid. Rich and poor nations are linked in many ways: through trade and investment flows, migration, the environment, military affairs and technology. Governments influence all these channels, for good and ill. They subsidise their own agriculture, undercutting poor farmers overseas. They send peacekeepers to nations that are healing after civil war. They tax petrol, slowing global warming. They promote technological change, but limit its spread through patents.
Poor countries do not want to depend on aid: they want the opportunity to trade and grow and play their full part in the world economy. Their ability to do so depends in part on how the rich and powerful behave. That’s why the Centre for Global Development produces the annual Commitment to Development Index (CDI) to assess rich nations on their overall impact on the developing world.
Interactive: the Commitment to Development Index
In the latest index, published on Tuesday, Britain ranks 12th out of 22 countries. As you would expect, Britain scores well on foreign aid (ranking 8th). British aid is respectable for both its quantity, now at 0.51% of national income, and for its quality — the Department for International Development (DfID) tends to avoid parcelling aid out in penny packets, which impose an administrative burden on understaffed recipient governments.
Britain’s place in the CDI, however, is hurt by weaknesses elsewhere. Along with France and the US, it is a major exporter of weapons to undemocratic nations such as Saudi Arabia, which this year deployed its military to put down pro-democracy protesters in Bahrain. That’s why the UK ranks 19th out of 22 on security.
Once again the Nordic countries and the Netherlands come top of the league. Generosity with aid plays a part, but so do progressive policies on the environment (especially, limiting greenhouse gas emissions) and migration (welcoming legal immigrants from developing countries). Japan and South Korea are the least development-friendly, with high barriers to goods and workers from poorer nations and low contributions to foreign aid and peacekeeping operations.
Given the Blair government’s high-profile commitment to Africa, it is interesting to ask whether Britain does well by that continent. In fact it does, which one can see by selecting “sub-Saharan Africa” in the interactive. Doing so zeros in on aid to Africa, barriers to African imports, secondments of troops to peacekeeping in Africa, and so on. The UK comes fourth, behind only Ireland, Portugal and Sweden.
As you can sense, we have packed a lot into the CDI. The interactive lets you explore the details. The index is based on publically available data, and on the Centre for Global Development site you can find all our calculations so you can see how the scores are produced. You can also browse through performance reports for each country, and background papers. For the technically savvy, there are online spreadsheets and databases.
The Centre for Global Development has worked hard to improve the CDI. But it is not an infallible measure of development impact and intent. You can argue about almost every indicator. Are big aid projects always better? What if carbon emissions fall for reasons that have nothing to do with government policy? And should it include economic policies, such as bank regulation and interest rate settings, which also have huge effects overseas?
We welcome such discussion. For us, the real goal is not an infallible index, but more awareness of, and readiness to improve, the full range of policies that affect the lives of the global poor. Aid alone is not the way to measure our footprint in the developing world. The CDI shows that every country can improve on many fronts.
David Roodman is a senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development and the architect of the Commitment to Development Index. Owen Barder is a senior fellow and the Europe director of the Centre for Global Development
This joint post with Rita Perakis first appeared on the CGD blog.
Has the aid industry introduced the reforms it agreed in 2005 to make aid more effective? No, according to the survey published last week by the OECD DAC. In this blog post we reflect on why this matters, and what it means for the forthcoming summit in Busan.
The development sector is in a mess. Developing countries have to deal with a large and growing number of partners, each with separate agendas, priorities, and requirements. Meetings, reports, milestones and systems multiply. Skilled staff are hired away from governments and from business to serve in local agency offices or NGOs. Funding is fragmented and unpredictable, which means that developing countries are often unable to bring together the scale of long-term, predictable finance needed to undertake significant institutional reform and service delivery. As just one example – in Vietnam, it took 18 months and the involvement of 150 government workers to purchase just five vehicles for a donor-funded project, because of differences in procurement policies among aid agencies.
None of this is news, nor is it disputed. The donor club of industrialised countries, the DAC, says:
“poor co-ordination and unpredictable aid waste funds that should be eradicating poverty in the world’s poorest countries.”
Six years ago developed and developing countries committed themselves to fixing these problems. The Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness set out five principles to make aid more effective, and a set of thirteen measurable targets which they aimed to reach by 2010.
Last Thursday, the Development Assistance Committee of the OCED (the DAC) published the results of the monitoring survey. The DAC is not known for hard-hitting criticism of its members. But even this mild-mannered organisation feels compelled to call the results ‘sobering’.
Of thirteen measured targets to improve the effectiveness of aid, just one has been met. What was this one milestone which donors were able to reach? They lived up to their commitment to talk more to each other (“Strengthen capacity by coordinated support”).
The DAC reports that the areas of progress have been largely on the part of developing countries. These include putting in place sound national development strategies and results frameworks, and improvements in public financial management systems. According to the report, the areas of little or no progress are overwhelmingly on the part of donors: aid is still not on recipient countries’ budgets, is no more predictable, and is becoming increasingly fragmented.
When developing countries fall short of targets set for them by donors, we say they are ‘off track’ and start to talk about cutting off their aid. What happens when donors fall short of targets they have set themselves?
The DAC points out that although the overall results are disappointing, some good progress has been made in some places. That’s true, and it is interesting that there is no obvious pattern. For example, though Tanzania is highly aid dependent, it appears to have been effective at imposing more discipline on donors. Some of the results suggest that the survey leaves too much room for interpretation: for example, Japan’s relatively strong performance against the Paris indicators is difficult to reconcile with perceptions on the ground.
The Paris indicators are not a direct measure of aid effectiveness. They are measures of progress towards goals which are thought by the Paris signatories to be associated with better aid. But that connection is tenuous: for example, though Tanzania has done well at pushing donors to comply with the Paris principles, nobody seems to think that aid in Tanzania now delivers more bang for the buck than aid elsewhere (rather the opposite, if anything).
It should be no surprise that progress towards the Paris principles has been slow. The aid system represents a compromise between the interests of donors and recipients, mediated by organisations and agencies with interests of their own. For example, donors have not been willing to make aid more predictable. That’s because there is political value to them in being able to dispense or withhold aid according to the latest fad or political pressure, and aid implementing agencies enjoy having the power of day-to-day control. Though retaining this discretion is estimated to reduce the overall value of aid by 15-20 percent, the political and institutional benefits to donors apparently outweigh the disadvantages of supplying less effective aid – perhaps because the people who suffer from ineffective aid don’t have votes in donor countries. Making an international commitment to fix this could help a little, because it adds very slightly to the political cost of lack of predictability. But the political cost of failing to meet this commitment is evidently too small to make a difference to the political calculation. That’s what we see in the monitoring survey: the proportion of aid that is classified as predictable has risen from 42% in 2005 to – drum roll – 43% in 2010: some way short of the target of 71% by 2010.
Can the forthcoming summit in Busan in November change this? It is hard to see how yet another conference with yet another communiqué will change these underlying political dynamics. The latest news is that Ban Ki Moon and Hillary Clinton are both planning to attend. Does the political weight of a communiqué increase in proportion to the size of the motorcades at the summit?
The political constraints which lead to ineffective aid are genuinely difficult to overcome. This should be ‘sobering’ to donors as a measure of their inability to fix long-standing and well-documented problems. But it should also be ‘sobering’ to those same donors who travel around the world pressing developing countries to implement reforms in the face of much more substantial political constraints. If donors cannot implement something as simple and uncontroversial as coordinated country missions or common procurement rules, why do they expect developing countries to be able to implement changes in land tenure or public enterprise reform?
We should give credit to the DAC for getting an agreement to reform, putting in place a monitoring system, recording the progress that has taken place, and stimulating the debate about aid effectiveness. But it is neither desirable nor sustainable that the donor club should be responsible for tracking the donors’ performance against their commitments. A more independent watchdog would surely have reported donors’ failure to meet 12 out of 13 targets with a greater sense of outrage.
Finally, all this is becoming increasingly anachronistic. The Paris principles are most obviously relevant to countries that are low income and stable. But there are now just thirteen of those: most of the world’s poor now live in middle income countries and fragile states. The DAC represents the donors who are members of the OECD, but does not include China and other emerging powers, foundations, private giving and NGOs, many of whom do not share the DAC’s view about what makes aid effective. The challenge for Busan is to define the role of aid in helping to build a sustainable, resilient and inclusive global economy.
On Friday the World Bank London office had a meeting on ‘the Future of Aid’. The meeting was, according to the tortuous language of the invitation, “conducted in an informal manner with interested stakeholders from governments, civil society, private sector, media and academia with a view to explore new ideas on how best to explore cooperation between European actors and the World Bank Group in addressing these challenges.”
Annoyingly the meeting was held under The Chatham House Rule which means I am not allowed to report who said what. (Tangential thought: I am considering ignoring this in future if the invitation does not make it clear that this is the basis on which the meeting is being held.) I am allowed to tell you that the group included people from ODI (Simon Maxwell & Andrew Rogerson), a co-author of Philanthrocapitalism (Mike Green), DFID (Paul Healy Healey & Laura Kelly), the EBRD (Erik Berglöf, Gaspard Koenig & Hans Peter Lankes), and representatives from KPMG (John Burton), ActionAid (Lucia Fry), Save the Children UK (Jessica Espey & Kate Dooley) and BOND (Joanna Rey).
It turned out to be an interesting discussion.
First, there was considerable pessimism about the public’s appetite for aid. Opinion polls depend heavily on how you ask the question, but a common theme seems to be that the public’s concern for poverty and development is stable and quite high; while the public’s confidence in government aid is falling rapidly. There are several reasons why these may be diverging, which are not mutually exclusive. Declining support for aid spending may be the effect of the economic downturn; it may reflect a trend towards public distrust of bureaucracies; it may be the long term consequence of aid’s failure to live up to its supporters’ excessively grandiose claims of what it can achieve. There was some debate about whether a greater focus on ‘results’ could reverse this. Hardly anyone seriously argued that declining public support is merely a temporary consequence of the economic downturn which will reverse automatically when incomes start to grow again.
A second interesting theme was the tension between more effective aid, and aid which donors are willing to provide. It is possible that as the system shifts towards greater recipient country control of how aid is used (as envisaged under the Paris Declaration), so support for aid in donor countries declines. If you can’t use aid to promote your economic, commercial, security and strategic interests, then you might not want to give it at all. Bertin Martens memorably pointed out that the end of structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s (under which donors attempted to impose various policies on recipient countries) was followed by sharp decline in aid in the early 1990s. If you see the aid relationship as an equilibrium between the interests of the donors and the interests of the recipients, and if the Paris Declaration is an effort to move away from this equilibrium by reducing the power of donors and increasing the power of recipient countries, then perhaps declining aid budgets today are a consequence these modest moves away from the equilibrium. There is almost no public support for budget support (a form of aid which embodies many of the Paris principles) and budget support may now in retreat – so perhaps the aid system was temporarily pulled from its equilibrium by Paris, and may now be heading back to it again. In other words, there may be a choice between an abundance of somewhat ineffective aid which balances the interests of recipients and donors, and aid which is less conducive to the interests of donors, more effective at reducing poverty, but much less abundant. Aid agencies have a stronger internal interest in abundance than in effectiveness, and so will tend to support a return to the equilibrium in which aid is popular and plentiful, but not tremendously effective.
The third theme was the most interesting. Mike Green recalled an idea from Empire, a ghastly book published in 2000 by Antonio Negri and Michael Hardt, which suggested that activists may organize themselves as a ” post-modern posse”. Mike suggested that, in the absence of effective mechanisms for global governance to provide public goods in a rules-based system, we are left tackling these problems in temporary coalitions, or posses, which come together outside formal structures and without formal legitimacy. Examples range from the coalitions of the willing which come together to support military intervention, to the vertical funds which have proliferated in the aid industry. (Mike was not suggesting that this was desirable, but pointing out that this may be what happens in a second-best world without effective global institutions). This idea clearly resonated with the group, which recognised the applicability of the metaphor as a description of today’s development system. (Update: more on the ‘posse’ idea from Mike Green and Matt Bishop here.)
My own view, for what it is worth, is that:
- we should consciously reposition aid as support to those who are most marginalised to provide them with access to key services such as food, water, health and education, and move away from the idea that the purpose of aid is to accelerate economic development;
- that’s not because economic development isn’t an important objective; but it may not be the best use of aid;
- the main things that industrialised countries can do to promote economic development in the developing world may be changes in other policies ‘beyond aid’ such as trade, climate change, migration, climate change, cooperation on tax, tackling corruption and illicit financial flows; and arms sales;
- some organisations which profess to be interested in development are too heavily focused on aid and not enough on how we can improve these other policies.
This blog post was first published on the CGAP Microfinance blog.
It seems extraordinary that after 50 years of international aid, there is still no consensus on whether it works. Zambian economist Dambisa Moyo (Dead Aid) has argued that aid is not only ineffective, but is actually detrimental to development. Bill Easterly (The Elusive Quest for Growth) says that ‘trillions of dollars’ of aid have had little effect. Others, notably Jeff Sachs (The End of Poverty) and Roger Riddel (Does Foreign Aid Work?), have argued that there is plenty of evidence of the success of individual aid projects, and that it has brought about substantial improvements in people’s lives. If we cannot even agree on whether aid works at all, how can we address the more important and nuanced questions such as how to make that aid more effective?
At the heart of this disagreement is not a dispute about the impact of aid but about what we mean when we ask whether ‘aid works.’
Microfinance is an example which mirrors the issues in the wider aid industry. Microfinance has often been touted as a bottom up solution to poverty. The Nobel Peace Prize 2006 was awarded jointly to Muhammad Yunus and Grameen Bank “for their efforts to create economic and social development from below.” Give people access to credit, the story went, and they will be able to invest in businesses of their own. Instead of needing long-term support, the poor will be able to stand on their own two feet. The Acumen Fund promises “Dignity not Dependence. Choice not charity.” This attractive prospect is one reason that microfinance has been so successful in raising donor funding, especially from foundations and private giving.
Following dozens of studies of microcredit and microfinance, there is little credible evidence that microcredit itself lifts people out of poverty. The two good randomized controlled trials find no impact of microcredit on poverty (though to be fair they have not yet been running for very long). As the evidence has challenged these grandiose claims, some in the microfinance industry have chosen to defend aspirations which are both more humble and more plausible. First, there is growing recognition that much else besides access to credit is needed to enable poor people to run a successful business, and so microfinance can at best make a contribution to a wider set of circumstances needed for development. Second, there is recognition that, even if microfinance is often used for consumption rather than investment, it is still a significant improvement in people’s lives if they have more control over their finances and are better able to deal with uncertainty and volatility in their incomes. Third, microfinance may lubricate the process of experimentation and failure whichmay help successful firms and enterprises to emerge.
The rest of the aid industry would also benefit from a more nuanced account of its objectives. We often talk about aid as if it falls into two categories: humanitarian aid and development aid. But in reality this is a false dichotomy: most aid falls into neither category. More than 60 percent of aid is a long-term contribution to the provision of key services such as education, health, water and sanitation, and an investment in the institutions needed to provide them in the future. Improving people’s lives is a realistic and laudable goal. Measured against this more humble (but still very important) objective, there is plenty of evidence of the success of aid. Aid has helped to abolish smallpox, to increase the number of children in primary school, and to give families access to clean water and improved sanitation. Charles Kenny (‘Getting Better’) has convincingly argued that when measured by almost every standard other than income, the quality of life has improved substantially in developing countries. Foreign aid has made a significant contribution to these improvements.
It is tempting to make the bolder claim that investments in education and health also improve growth and development in the long run. Perhaps they do – but, as with microcredit, the evidence for this relationship is weak. Why is it not sufficient to say that people everywhere should have access to these services – including financial services – whether or not this leads to long-term transformation of their economy and society?
Everyone wants developing countries to escape aid dependency, and most people recognized that this requires sustainable growth and jobs. Because this is such a compelling objective, the development industry has been tempted to justify aid on these grounds. But the evidence from opinion polls and focus groups suggests that the public is willing to support aid which demonstrably meets immediate human needs irrespective of whether this contributes to long-run growth. By setting excessively ambitious objectives for aid, the industry risks alienating the public from their emotional connection with what aid can achieve, and asks to be measured by standards that it is unlikely ever to be able to show that it meets.
There are many flows of finance to developing countries which will contribute to investment and growth, including direct investment, portfolio capital flows and remittances. The main drivers of growth will come from the country itself through private and public investment. Aid is a small proportion of the finance for developing countries. But it is a precious resource because, unlike other sources of finance, it can help meet the needs of the most marginalized communities, women and girls, and people living in long-term chronic poverty. If we want to see aid used effectively, we should demand that it is used for these purposes for which it has a unique contribution to make. Just because growth is a priority does not mean it is a priority for aid.
Measured against reasonable claims about what aid can achieve, it is demonstrably effective. As we have seen with microfinance, the industry damages rather than enhances its case by overstating what aid can achieve. By setting realistic objectives, we can both make aid more effective, and demonstrate the difference it makes.
I really believe that this is how some organisations and government departments view knowledge sharing:
(h/t Ian Thorpe)
Primary school close to our house in Addis Ababa
Living in Ethiopia for the last three years, I saw aid working every day. I saw children going to school, health workers in rural villages, and food or cash preventing hunger for the poorest people. The academic debates about aid effectiveness seem surreal when you are surrounded by tangible, visible evidence of the huge difference aid makes to people’s lives.
But on the whole the sceptics are not disputing that kids are going to school because of aid. They are asking what effect that has on the country as a whole. Does it lead to economic growth? Does it drive up the exchange rate and so damage competitiveness? Do governments become dependent on donors and so less accountable to their own citizens? Does aid keep the bad guys in power?
It is possible that aid is effective in terms providing people with basic services, and at the same time that it is not effective at increasing economic growth. It is even possible that aid simultaneously does short-run good (better services) and long-run harm (worse institutions).
It was this difference between perspectives which made me want to respond to the call for evidence in an investigation into aid by the Economic Affairs Select Committee of the British House of Lords. This committee, which includes some well-known economists and other public figures, is examining the ‘Economic Impact and Effectiveness of Development Aid’.
My written submission is here. It is just six pages long. ( I’m very grateful to Stephanie Majerowicz for her help putting this together.)
The submission begins by trying to address the question of what aid is for, which seems to be the source of much of the confusion about whether aid works. Aid is often regarded as having two purposes: humanitarian aid to alleviate suffering usually in an emergency, and development aid to promote economic growth and sustained prosperity. But this is a false dichotomy: most aid falls into neither category. About two thirds of British bilateral aid is spent on improving services such as education, health, water and sanitation. This aid is not a temporary humanitarian response to an emergency, but a long-term contribution to the provision of key services and an investment in the institutions needed to provide them in the future. The success of this aid is not best measured by whether it leads to growth in the short or medium term, but by the improvements it brings about in the quality of people’s lives.
The submission then reviews the evidence about whether aid leads to economic growth (answer: we don’t know) and whether aid improves people’s lives (answer: yes it often does). The more interesting question is not whether aid works, but which aid works.
But there are also possible adverse effects of aid, and these are potentially serious. The submission suggests that these may be mainly a consequence of how aid is given and that they can largely be eliminated if donors give better aid. But that requires donors to overcome domestic political obstacles to reform of aid.
The evidence finishes with ten suggestions for how to make aid work better. They are:
- Spend more through the multilateral system
- Make aid more predictable
- Make aid transparent, accountable and traceable
- Build the accountability of governments to their parliaments and citizens
- Focus on results and use this to simplify aid
- Invest more in global public goods, especially new technologies
- Focus aid on people in chronic poverty, and on women and girls
- Leverage the private sector
- Use innovative finance to increase the productivity of aid
- Learn more and fail safely
It is a good discipline to be concise, but it is not possible to do full justice in six pages to the nuances of these issues. I have tried address the big questions with what I hope are balanced and dispassionate judgments. I hope you will let me know in the comments if you think I’ve got these right.
Read the full submission here.
This blog post was also published on CGD Views from the Center.
The interesting question in development is not whether aid works or does not work. Not surprisingly, the answer is that some aid works and some doesn’t. A more interesting question is: what kind of aid works best?
Nick Kristof has a good article (if a little simplified) in the New York Times today about randomized trials, which he describes as ‘the hottest thing in the fight against poverty’. This new wave of rigorous evidence about impact is helping us to understand which policies and programmes in developing countries work well (whoever pays for them) and which do not.
I especially enjoyed his digression about the importance of economists:
When I was in college, I majored in political science. But if I were going through college today, I’d major in economics. It possesses a rigor that other fields in the social sciences don’t — and often greater relevance as well. That’s why economists are shaping national debates about everything from health care to poverty, while political scientists often seem increasingly theoretical and irrelevant.
Economists are successful imperialists of other disciplines because they have better tools. Educators know far more about schools, but economists have used rigorous statistical methods to answer basic questions: Does having a graduate degree make one a better teacher? (Probably not.) Is money better spent on smaller classes or on better teachers? (Probably better teachers.)
I suspect not everybody will agree with this.
Something about which I am not particularly bothered is the possibility that, if we give aid to a country to contribute to its school system or health clinics, the effect may be that the government chooses to spend less of its own money on these services, and instead to spend more of its money on something else which did not catch our eye, such as infrastructure or even defence. (This is a concern usually known in development circles as fungibility of aid – though see the pedantic footnote.)
One reason that ‘fungibility’ doesn’t bother me much is that I think that it is a good thing for a government to be able to choose (and to be accountable for) its own spending priorities. To govern is to choose, so if we want to encourage the emergence of capable, accountable and responsive states we should think twice before trying to limit the ability of a government to make choices over its spending priorities. I also think there is a reasonable chance that they are better informed about their priorities than we are.
But suppose you don’t agree with me, and you think that donors should try to ensure that when they give aid, the overall effect is to increase spending on the thing for which they have given the aid.
You have broadly two choices.
Option 1: you can give your aid as a project. You use your own procurement system, pay the contractor directly and check that the clinic has been built, or that the teacher has been trained. So you know that your money has built the school. (Right?)
Option 2: you can give your aid through the government, either through the finance ministry or through the relevant line ministry. They pay for the work to be done, and you can still check that a clinic has been built.
It may look at first like a no-brainer: the project seems to give you more certainty that your money has been used as you intended. But that superficial view is pretty much exactly wrong. There may be good reasons for preferring project aid in particular circumstances, but the ‘fungibility’ of budget support is not among them.
Under option 1 the government is still able to make its own budget allocations. So if you build a clinic the government can, if it wishes, reduce health spending to offset your project spending dollar for dollar. Now it can spend that money on defence, or the President’s palace, or any number of other things. When you ask for assurances from the finance ministry that it will not spend the budget on line items of which you disapprove, it will probably point out that none of your money is involved and that you should mind your own business. There is no way to compare actual health spending with what it might have been without your project, so you can never determine what impact you have had on the government’s budget allocations.
Under option 2, by contrast, the government budget is at least partly your business. You might employ staff to understand the budget allocations and to discuss them with the finance ministry and with line ministries. Before making your grant you seek assurances about the future trajectory of spending you think is important. You might obtain assurances that spending on social services will continue to rise from one year to the next, if that is what you think should happen. If the government decides to spend money in ways you think unwise, or worse, you have some standing to have a conversation with the finance ministry and to ask it to reconsider, or even to make your aid conditional on the overall budget allocations (for example, donors attempted to constrain the growth of Uganda’s military spending in this way).
Here is an example of how our normal assumptions about fungibility can mislead us. A USAID assessment of Mozambique alleges that, “more than $100 million of donor funds were used in 2001 to bail out the failed privatization of the Commercial Bank of Mozambique (BCM)”. Let’s think about what this means. In what sense were ‘donor funds’ used to bail out BCM, rather than the government’s own revenues?
This assertion seems to require us to speculate that if the donors had not given aid to the government, the government would not have bailed out BCM. But is there any reason for thinking that if there had been no aid at all, the government would have felt obliged to spend its own resources on health and education first, instead of the bank bail out? Or would it have bailed out the bank just the same and provided fewer schools and clinics? And if all the donors had run health and education projects themselves, instead of giving aid to the government, what would the government have done with its budget savings in these areas? Would it not have used the money for the bank bail out?
The (explicit) claim that donor money was used for the bail out, and the (implicit) claim that this could happen because the aid was provided through the government budget rather than as stand alone projects, both seem doubtful. The bank bail out would probably have happened anyway: in which case the effect of aid was that there was more provision of health and education services than there would otherwise have been. If so, then in ordinary language we would say that donor funds were used for heath and education (not for the bail out) because that’s the difference the aid made.
Furthermore, in this particular case, the fact that the donors were mainly giving budget support almost certainly resulted in higher spending on social services than if they had been giving only project aid. The donors giving budget support had robust discussion with the government of Mozambique about its plans to bail out the banks, and thereby perhaps limited the resources used for the bail out. If the donors had been giving all their aid through projects, they probably would have not been able to have that conversation at all. If budget support gives the government less room to reallocate its spending because donors have more influence, this suggests that aid provided through the budget is less ‘fungible’ than aid provided as projects.
Whether or not you agree with these judgments about what might have happened in Mozambique, the example shows that our talk about ‘fungibility’ is somewhere between meaningless and irrelevant. We ought to be concerned about whether the clinics or schools got built. We can observe these outputs equally well whether we give project aid or budget support. We get into a mess when we start to speculate about what would have happened in an alternative universe in which we did not give aid, or in which we gave aid in some other way, which is what concerns about ‘fungibility’ invite us to do. We can’t predict whether those outputs would have been built without us, irrespective of whether we give project aid or budget support. Nor can we predict what would have happened to the rest of government spending whichever way we choose to give our aid.
Any statement about ‘fungibility’ requires us to compare the real world with some hypothetical world in which we did not give aid or in which we gave aid in some other way. Whatever we do to improve public financial management in the real world does not solve the problem that we can’t audit the hypothetical world. Even if we had perfect information about the real world – which is what we try to approximate by running our own projects – that wouldn’t tell us more about the alternative world, so it wouldn’t reduce the uncertainty about ‘fungibility’. If you are concerned about fungibility, greater use of stand alone projects is not a rational response.
If we are concerned about how the rest of government spending is allocated, the best way to have some influence is to give some of our aid through the government. Then at least donors can have a conversation with the government. (This isn’t merely a theoretical point. It actually happens. The US tends to be less influential over government budgets and public financial management in developing countries than other donors because it normally provides project aid.)
There are countries in which public financial management systems are incomplete and weak. In those environments we are inclined to be especially careful that the aid we give is used for the purposes we intend. It is common to assume that providing aid as a project makes it less fungible, and so less susceptible to being used to finance spending which is not consistent with our priorities. But this is nonsense. Governments can use the fiscal space created by aid equally well whether you give aid as a project or through government systems; when you give project aid you shut your eyes to the problem, but it doesn’t go away.
Pedants’ corner
Though this issue is usually known as fungibility of aid, to be pedantic the correct label is liquidity of aid since the concern is that aid may substitute for a different asset – namely domestic revenues – rather than another unit of the same asset.
Using a headline I borrowed from a smart colleague in DFID, there is an article by me in the current edition of the Public Service Review, which focuses on on international development. You can download a PDF of the article here.
My article begins with a quote from Brian Eno:
We expect that the next big thing will be a bigger version of the last big thing. What we don’t expect, yet what is most likely, is that the next big thing won’t look important to us at all – until it’s so important that we can’t ignore it.”
Brian Eno, Prospect, 26th November 2010
There are some interesting articles elsewhere in the same edition looking at the role of the private sector in development, and a rather eclectic mix of other articles.
I’m back from holiday, so here is the promised second of a pair of posts reflecting on three years of working on aid transparency. In the first post I talked about eight lessons mainly about why different kinds of aid transparency are important. In this post, I’m going to look at the next steps, particularly focusing on how we can provide meaningful transparency for citizens in developing countries.
There is a lot of detail below, so for busy readers here is a summary of the proposed ten steps for aid transparency.
1. Donors cannot achieve meaningful user-centred transparency just by putting project data on their websites. Users need information which comes from many different organisations simultaneously. Yet it is not realistic to try to maintain lots of different manually-updated databases which collate information for users. The answer is for organisations to publish online all the information they have about aid projects and programmes, in a common, reusable format, which can then be used as the basis for user-centric databases and applications. The International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI) is the best chance for a generation of creating such a public infrastructure for information about aid. All donors, foundations, international organisations, NGOs and aid contractors should implement the IATI standard as the key first step to meaningful, user-centred aid transparency.
2. Any organisations which do not implement IATI voluntarily should be pushed to do so by the organisations and people who fund them. For example, official aid agencies should require every organisation to whom they give a grant or contract to implement IATI as a condition of handling public money. Citizens should refuse to put money into a collecting tin if the charity is not implementing IATI. Governments should consider making IATI compliance a precondition for charitable status and tax relief. Developing country governments should make IATI compliance a precondition of local registration by international NGOs.
Google has a policy that it should eat its own dogfood
3. Donors, foundations and NGOs should ‘eat their own dogfood’ – that is, any information on their website and any analysis and data that they publish about aid should use be based on the publicly available data infrastructure. This will give the organisations an incentive to ensure that the information they make available through IATI is up-to-date, comprehensive and accurate and that the system is fit for purpose.
4. Once donors and foundations are (a) publishing their data through IATI and (b) using IATI for their own websites and analysis, they should consider (c) helping other users, especially in developing countries, to make the best use of this information. But donors’ priority should be getting their own house in order by publishing their information in a reusable format, since this is something only they can do, and using that public data infrastructure themselves, before they help others to do so.
5. One of the highest priorities for new information about aid is that all aid spending should be classified in future according to the recipient country budget classifications as well as agreed international classifications. The Technical Advisory Group for IATI should agree the mechanism for this as soon as possible.
6. It seems so obvious that it shouldn’t need saying, but aid would clearly be more effective if we had more information about the future plans of donors, foundations and NGOs. Homi Kharas, in Measuring the Cost of Aid Volatility, estimates that the cost to aid recipients of historic unpredictability of committed aid flows is at least 15 percent. It could be much higher. Finance ministries, line ministries, the IMF, other donors, NGOs and the private sector would all do a better job with their money if they knew what was planned by others. Organisations should publish whatever they know about their future aid plans, generally (with some possible exceptions such as for procurement) at the level of detail they know it. This is likely to be the hardest part of IATI for many organisations, as few have mechanisms to keep systematic track of their forward spending plans.
7. A global system of traceability in aid, enabling money to be tracked from taxpayer to services delivered, via multiple layers of multi-donor funds, international and local NGOs and private sector contractors, is less difficult and expensive to implement than you might think. Traceability of aid would bring about a huge step forward in efforts to make aid more effective and less prone to corruption and waste, and for building public support for aid. Done right, it could also substantially alleviate the reporting burdens of aid recipients, NGOs and implementing agencies, and reduce donors’ costs of monitoring compliance. Priority should be given to implementing this part of the IATI standard.
8. Donors, foundations, NGOs and implementing organisations should start recording and publishing detailed geographical information about aid projects and programmes using the newly-agreed IATI standard format for geocoding of aid, and they should require their implementing partners to do the same.
9. Some donors and agencies have defined, or are in the process of defining, their own internal standardised output indicators. Organisations should now make a big effort to reach an international agreement on a common set of standardised ouput indicators to facilitate international comparability across organisations. This information can be reported through IATI.
10. When we connect feedback from citizens in developing countries to a rich public data infrastructure about aid, we will have a much more realistic inderstanding of the impact and effectiveness of aid. That day is coming sooner than most of us realise.
You will doubtless think me guilty of hyperbole when I say that the emergence of an open, international infrastructure for development information has the potential to transform the development business, much as the internet has transformed so much of our society, and for similar reason. I’m sorry that this is an absurdly long blog post, but I hope it will convince you of the amazing opportunities which are there if we seize them.
I’ve spent the last three years working on aid transparency. As I’m moving on to a very exciting new role (watch this space for more details) this seems a good time to reflect on what I’ve learned in the last three years.
This is a self-indulgently long essay about the importance of aid transparency, and the priorities for how it should be achieved. Busy readers may want to read the 8-point summary below. And for a very clear and concise introduction to the importance of aid transparency, take a look at this video by my (former) colleagues at aidinfo.
The 8-point summary
Here are what I think are the eight most important things I’ve learned in the last three years about transparency in general, and aid transparency in particular:
- To make a difference, transparency has to be citizen-centred not donor-centred.
Citizen-centred transparency would allow citizens of developing countries to combine and use information from many different donor agencies; and provide aid information compatible with the classifications of their own country budget. - Today’s ways of publishing information serve the needs of the powerful, not citizens
Existing mechanisms for publishing aid information were designed by the powerful for the powerful. Until the aidinfo team started 3 years ago, nobody had ever done a systematic study of the information needs of all stakeholders, including citizens, parliamentarians and civil society, let alone thought about how those needs could be met. - People in developing countries want transparency of execution not just allocation
There are important differences between the information requirements of people in donor countries and people in developing countries. Current systems for aid transparency focus mainly on transparency of aid allocation, because that is what donor country stakeholders are largely interested in, and not enough on transparency of spending execution, which is of primary interest to people in developing countries. - Show, don’t tell
Citizens in donor nations are increasingly sceptical of annual reports and press releases. In aid as in other public services they want to be able to see for themselves the detail of how their money is being used and what difference it is making. They increasingly expect to engaged, and are less willing to be passive funders leaving the decisions entirely to ‘experts’. Donor agencies – whether government agencies, international organisations or NGOs – will have to adapt rapidly to become platforms for citizen engagement. - Transparency of aid execution will drive out waste, bureaucracy and corruption
There is, unfortunately, quite a bit of waste, bureaucracy and corruption in the aid system. There is good evidence that this kind of waste is rapidly reduced when the flow of money is made transparent. Corruption and waste prosper in dark places. - Social accountability could be Development 3.0
The results agenda in aid agencies is currently too top down and pays too little attention to the power of bottom up information from the intended beneficiaries of aid. Increased accountability to citizens may be the key to unlocking better service delivery, improved governance and faster development. - The burden of proof should be on those who advocate secrecy
We have published a compelling business case for greater transparency, with all the uncertainties this kind of analysis entails. So where is the business case for secrecy, which would be far harder to quantify or defend? Why does nobody even ask for it? Why is the (inevitable) uncertainty in this kind of analysis allowed to count against the case for transparency, when the same uncertainty would deal a much greater blow against the case for secrecy? - Give citizens of developing countries the benefit of the doubt
Transparency is necessary but not sufficient for more effective aid. But the fact that transparency alone will not solve every problem should not be an excuse for aid agencies to shirk their responsibilities to be transparent. Nor should we be too attentive to vested interests in the aid industry telling us that transparency is not enough. Citizens of developing countries will be more innovative and effective than some people give them credit for when we give the information they need to hold the powerful to account.
That’s the summary. If any of that whets your appetite and you want the long version, read on. In my next post, I’ll look at the ten steps that development organisations should take towards aid transparency. Continue reading
Development advocates have to make the case for aid and development policy. They are right to say that development is in the national interest of the donor, but it may be a mistake to put this at the centre of the argument. Most people don’t need to be convinced that development is desirable; they need to be convinced that aid works.
Development is in our national interest
It is increasingly the conventional wisdom that it is in the national interest of industrialised countries to promote development in the rest of the world. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a speech saying so a year ago at the Center for Global Development:
… development was once the province of humanitarians, charities, and governments looking to gain allies in global struggles. Today it is a strategic, economic, and moral imperative – as central to advancing American interests and solving global problems as diplomacy and defense.
The UK Foreign Secretary, William Hague, also argues that development is a key part of Britain’s strategic and security interests (for example, here and here).
We’ve come a long way over the last twenty years. In January 1991 my father, then a British High Commissioner, sent a despatch to the then Foreign Secretary in London to mark the end of his last post in Africa, arguing that it was in the UK’s national interest to pay more attention to Africa’s development. His despatch said:
There is an overwhelming case on financial grounds alone for acting sooner rather than later, collectively, to provide the resources required for removing most of the debt burden from African countries (provided that they are committed to active economic reform), for arresting environmental degradation, and for restoring the physical and human infrastructure sufficiently to permit diversification of economic effort and its re-direction into areas that will eventually become self-financing – as well, incidentally, as making a more positive contribution to world economic activity.
At that time, the foreign policy establishment was very suspicious of any argument based on ethical or moral imperatives: it believed that foreign policy should be based on narrowly-defined national interests. In 1980 the Brandt Report had argued that it was in our “mutual interest” to pay attention to development and inequality, but in the decade that followed Britain’s aid programme, and our attention to developing countries, had declined. Twenty years ago, when my father was making a case for paying more attention to development based on our national interest as well as our values and moral obligations, his view was regarded as so subversive that the foreign office limited the circulation of the despatch. Today it is received wisdom which is regularly the basis of speeches by the US Secretary of State and the British Foreign Secretary.
We should celebrate the fact that there is, belatedly, recognition among policymakers that promoting development is in our national interest, as well as being the right thing to do. But I am concerned that we are letting the pendulum swing too far, by placing this argument at the centre of the public case for aid. We should use every argument at our disposal for doing the right thing, of course; but if we focus too much on aid being in our national interest, we are danger of undermining the effectiveness of aid and of failing to address the real concerns of sceptical citizens.
The nature of public doubts about aid
If I had a nickel for every time someone said to me, “I don’t think we should spend money helping starving people because I don’t give a toss about them,” I wouldn’t have any nickels at all.
The foreign policy establishment may have been sceptical about focusing on the ethical dimension of foreign policy, but the public never was. Neither the British nor the American people lack compassion for their fellow human beings. My father’s prescient efforts to awaken policymakers’ interest in development were made several years after Live Aid, which had showed that the public needs no lessons in generosity.
I readily concede that the public is often sceptical about aid. I have witnessed focus group discussions which anybody who is interested in development would find alarming, anyway at first. In such a discussion, the person who says “charity begins at home” will initially get lots of support. But as the discussion goes deeper, it turns out that they are sceptical not because of any indifference to the plight of others, but because they are not convinced that aid works. In many such groups you’ll hear Bauer’s famous remark that aid is “poor people from rich countries giving money to rich people from poor countries.” Many people are worried that aid ends up in the Swiss bank accounts of despots and dictators, or of corrupt consulting and construction firms. Yet when the same focus groups are given evidence of the benefits of particular aid programmes, their mood changes sharply, and they soon ask: “Why don’t we give more aid like that?”
The idea that “charity begins at home” clearly resonates with many people. In part the phrase expresses the idea that we have stronger social ties and obligations to people who live in our neighbourhood than we do to people on the other side of the world. But few people really believe, on reflection, that we should pay no heed to people dying of hunger or for lack of medical facilities just because they are far away. Perhaps “charity begins at home” resonates for another reason: we can observe at first hand whether the effort we make to help our family and neighbours is actually working, whereas with foreign aid we can’t, and we have a sneaking suspicion that this means that it isn’t.
The most popular critique of aid in recent years, Dead Aid by Dambisa Moyo, does not challenge aid on the grounds that the plight of the poor is not our concern. It is a poorly argued book in many other respects, but it would be wrong to accuse Dr Moyo of callous indifference. Indeed, all the famous aid sceptics, from P. T. Bauer to Bill Easterly, explicitly accept development as the objective: they simply question whether foreign aid is a good way to achieve it.
The dangers of relying on national interest
So perhaps the public does not need to be persuaded that development matters, but needs instead to be convinced that aid makes a difference. Even so, it seems reasonable to say that we should use every argument at our disposal for aid: we should appeal to the public’s self-interest as well as their moral values, and we should at the same time set out the evidence that aid works.
But there are two big risks to this approach which should lead us to think carefully about the balance of how we make the argument.
First, if we promote aid principally on the grounds that it supports our security and commercial interests, we should not be surprised when people expect that this is how aid should be used.
In the long term our national interest coincides with our moral urge to promote development and to reduce poverty. But in the short term there is often a trade-off between development and poverty reduction on the one hand, and our commercial, security and strategic interests on the other.
During the Cold War a huge amount of aid was wasted currying favour with despots for geo-strategic reasons and accordingly propping up failing industries and businesses. Even today, less than 40% of aid is spent in the poorest countries. This makes a kind of sense if your aim is to increase your influence in emerging economies and in fragile states like Pakistan and Iraq. There are many poor people in these countries, but all the evidence suggests that these are not the places in which aid is most needed and can do the most good. A significant portion of aid (though none of the UK’s aid) is still tied to firms in donor nations. This makes sense if the aim is to support the donor’s commercial interests but not if the aim is to have the greatest possible impact on the reduction of poverty. It is legitimate and proper for donors to want credit for their aid, to enhance both their international reputation and their image and influence in the recipient country. But this goal leads donors to give too much aid through bilateral aid programmes, on which their national flag can be stamped, and too little through more efficient multilateral institutions and other shared funds, resulting in unnecessary duplication, overheads and transaction costs.
We do not have institutions that can protect our long-term national interest in development and poverty reduction from the pressures to use aid to pursue these short-term strategic, security and commercial interests. In a world of short time horizons, our immediate interests tend to prevail over our longer-term goals. So the more we justify aid chiefly on the grounds of national interest, the greater the danger that our short-term national interest will dictate the way aid is used, with negative consequences for the effectiveness of aid and for our longer-term interest in poverty reduction.
If the public were unsure whether they cared enough about global development to give aid, then it might be worth deploying aid in ways which are most obviously in the national interest, even if that required sacrificing some of its effectiveness. (For many years, the Danish government justified tying aid to Danish suppliers on precisely these grounds.) But if the public is already convinced that development is important, and their doubt is primarily about whether aid is effective, then it makes no sense to use aid in less effective ways in an effort to win greater public approval.
The second reason why we should be cautious about focusing too much on our national interest when justifying aid is that we are in danger of setting ourselves up to fail.
Take an example which is, literally, close to home for me. School enrolment here in Ethiopia has risen from a quarter of all children fifteen years ago to more than four fifths of children today. About a third of Ethiopian children – 8 million boys and girls – are at school as a direct result of foreign aid. My house in Addis Ababa is a few hundred metres from the local primary school, so I see boys and girls going past my window to school every day.
If the British public could see as I do how their aid money is being used, they would, like me, be encouraged and touched by the good that aid does. This is a direct, demonstrable benefit of aid, and one which appeals to the British sense of justice and empathy for our fellow human beings. It would soften the heart of the hardest sceptic.
Kids going to school near my house in Addis Ababa. A third of Ethiopia's education system is financed by aid.
Why then is there such widespread doubt that aid works? In part it is because people at home cannot look out of their window and see it working. But it is also because we have made extravagant claims about what aid will do. Even if it is true that aid leads to faster economic development, and that it thereby reduces the risk of global health contagions, organised crime and drug smuggling, this would be impossible to demonstrate statistically. (It would be like trying to show that the EU has prevented war in Western Europe since 1945: plausible, very probably true, but unprovable.)
People are right to be doubtful about the validity of some of the more grandiose claims for what aid can achieve. Perhaps it seems too modest to say that we pay for millions of children to go to school, and for people to have access to clean water and basic health care. But this is a reality which we can prove beyond any doubt; and for most taxpayers it will seem well worth the modest amount of money we spend on it. And it is probable, even if unprovable, that all this works in favour of our own long-term interests as well.
The public and the politicians who represent them will inevitably devote only a modest amount of time to thinking about development. If we use up scarce bandwidth making an argument with which few disagree – that poverty matters – we waste the opportunity to make the argument of which they are yet to be convinced: that development policy and aid can and do make an important difference to the lives of the poor.
The aid that was used to prop up Mobutu in Zaire during the Cold War may have served a foreign policy interest, but it did little or nothing to reduce poverty and raise living standards in that country. Money used today to buy food aid may be a convenient subsidy for American and European farmers but if we bought the food locally we could feed twice as many people with the same money and at the same time support the growth of sustainable agriculture in developing countries. The more we use aid to support our strategic and commercial interests, the less effective that aid is likely to be in the fight against global poverty, in which we have an important long-term interest.
It is in our national interest to see faster development and the end of global poverty, and we should not be shy about saying so. But we should think twice before using this as the central plank of the case for more effective development policies and more aid. People do not need to be persuaded to care about global poverty: they do need to be convinced that there is something we can do about it. Just reminding them that it is in our national interest to promote development fundamentally misses the point. The more we defend aid mainly on the basis that it is in our national interest, the more likely it is to be bent to our short-term commercial and strategic interests, the more ineffectively it will be used, the harder it will be to demonstrate its benefits, and the greater the justification for public scepticism. Give the public some credit: they don’t need to be persuaded to care about poverty. Aid does work: and the first and most pressing task is to demonstrate to the public with persuasive evidence that this is so.
On the Oxfam blog, Max Lawson has an excellent guest post telling the story of how Malawi has used an extensive programme of fertilizer subsidies to generate seven years of economic growth, reduductions in poverty and child deaths.
Max cites a forthcoming paper by Andrew Dorward and Ephraim Chirwa (ungated version here). Dorward and Chirwa argue that:
Malawi’s agricultural input subsidy programme addresses a low maize productivity trap that leads to food insecurity and poverty, and constrains economic growth and, paradoxically, diversification out of maize and agriculture. This low productivity trap arises as a result of severe seasonal credit constraints affecting very large numbers of poor, food deficit farming families, together with thin and high risk, high margin input and maize markets. The key successes of Malawi’s subsidy programme arise where it relieves both affordability and profitability constraints to increased staple crop productivity from increased input use, and in doing this both raises land and labour productivity and improves food security for large numbers of poor households through some combination of increased real wages and reduced food prices.
The only part of Max’s post that I disagree with is his remark that ”we should leave our economic theory at the door and instead focus on what works empirically.” As Jonathan points out in the comments, economic theory tells us that government intervention may be an appropriate response to market failures. While recognising the success of the programme so far, we should not stop asking whether the same results could be achieved more cheaply and more sustainably with some other, even better approach.
A more relevant challenge is: why did some donors oppose this programme, and what have we (and they) learned from that error?
Dr Bingu wa Mutharika fought and won the 2004 election on a platform of guaranteeing food security. HIs proposals for a targeted subsidy was overturned by the Malawi Parliament in favour of a universal subsidy, which was introduced in 2005.
Election Poster for Bingu wa Mutharika
Donors are – on paper – committed to respecting government ownership and supporting the governments’ development programme. Yet despite clear national commitment, endorsed in a democratic election, donors generally opposed the introduction of fertilizer subsidies, consistent with the World Bank’s position throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The donors argued against the government’s proposed scheme because they thought it would be too expensive; it was insufficiently targeted on the poor; it would undermine private sector development; and because they doubted the capacity of the government to implement it.
When Malawi introduced its programme in 2005, the IMF and the US Government opposed it outright, on the grounds that it would damage the private sector. The World Bank, EU and UK Department for International Development adopted a more nuanced position: they argued that instead of a universal programme there should be “smart subsidies” which should be tightly targeted to reduce the costs, and that the programme should include an explicit exit strategy. DFID eventually supported the programme after extracting an agreement from the government that it would use private fertilizer suppliers. Some of the Scandinavian donors and UN agencies supported the programme from the outset, partly influenced by the apparent success of a local Millennium Villages Project.
The apparent success of the Malawi fertilizer subsidies is primarily a story about the Malawi government, not donors; though the scheme could not have been afforded, especially through the 2008 price hike, without donor funding. But it does give rise to two questions about donor policy and behaviour.
First, are donors still labouring under too simplistic a view of the role of government in the economy? Donors continue to be sceptical of agricultural subsidy programmes (which is rank hypocrisy, given the subsidies they provide their own farmers). This seems to be partly because we have an insufficiently rich analysis of the nature of the market failures and how they are best addressed; and partly because donors still suffer from the sustainability delusion, which requires them to oppose perfectly sensible government policies and programmes for which there is no identifiable exit. If the UK government were only allowed to implement inherently time-limited policies there would be no National Health Service.
Second, how should donors reconcile their own views of a policy with their commitment to respect country ownership? Donors are committed to support developing countries’ own development strategies. But what happens if they disagree either with the thrust of those policies, or with particular details? Should they refuse to finance them? Should they act as “critical friends”, identifying the shortcomings of the policies and seeking to get them changed? Should such opposition be private or public? How is that consistent with respecting country ownership? If they do try to change the policy how are they held to account when – as was apparently the case in Malawi – they are wrong?
I’d like to suggest two ways in which donors can better respect country ownership. First, where they have an opinion about a policy, they should produce publicly their analysis and evidence, to allow this view to be discussed as part of the public debate, rather than exert political and economic power behind closed doors. Second, there should be a version of the Salisbury Convention in aid: if a government is pursuing a policy for which it has an explicit mandate in a reasonably democratic election, the donors should not try to undermine it.
UPDATE: Smart commenters below ask two questions. First, is it premature to say this has been a success, until we have a year of bad rains? Second, were the donors as hostile as my blog post suggests? If you have insight into either question, please leave it in the comments below.
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